Exchange Rate Forecast: AUD, GBP, EUR, USD, NZD, CAD, JPY

06 March 2017 by News Desk   |   SHARE  

Central bank announcements and politics are expected to catalyse market movements this week, but there’s also some significant labour market data due out of the US and Canada which could impact exchange rates, say currency experts FC Exchange.

Australian Dollar (AUD) Exchange Rate Forecast – RBA Decision Ahead

It’s not expected to be a hugely significant week ahead in terms of Australian economic data; however, there are a few events that may instigate market movement. Tuesday’s Pacific session will see the release of the February Australian Industry Group (AIG) performance of construction index. The January reading came in at 47.7 – any figure below 50.0 denotes contraction, whereas above indicates growth. If February’s figure prints positively, there’s the potential the Aussie dollar could be offered some support.

Also in Tuesday’s session the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will announce its latest interest rate decision which is expected to remain at 1.50%. Friday will finish up the week with Australian home loans, investment lending and value of loans ecostats.

Pound Sterling (GBP) Exchange Rate Predictions – GDP Estimate due Friday

With no high-tier British data due out this week, the pound is likely to experience its most significant movement on political events. In terms of economic data, Tuesday will see the release of the British Retail Consortium’s (BRC) like-for-like sales number, followed by the RICS house price balance on Thursday. Friday is scheduled to be a significant day for the pound exchange rate with the release of UK industrial production, manufacturing production, construction output, trade balance, and the NIESR gross domestic product (GDP) estimate.

Euro (EUR) Exchange Rate Forecast for ECB and OECD Movement

Thursday is likely to be the most influential day for the euro this week with central bank events taking place. The European Central Bank (ECB) is due to make its latest interest rate decision – economists forecast the figure will remain at 0.0%. Inflation for the currency bloc rose by 2.0% in February following a surge in the German consumer price index (CPI) which gave way to fresh calls for a higher bank rate.

Also out on Thursday will be the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) economic outlook which could provide some moderate movement for the euro. Friday will finish the week with German trade balance data.

US Dollar (USD) Exchange Rate Awaiting Non-Farm Payrolls

Markets will be looking towards Friday for major US dollar movement as unemployment rate and change in non-farm payrolls stats are released. Additionally, the US monthly budget statement and Baker Hughes rig count ecostats will also be published.

One of the biggest events on the horizon for the Greenback is the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) interest rate decision in the middle of the month. The dollar could gain significantly against other majors if the market gets a whiff of potential rate hikes.

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) Exchange Rate Forecast for Global Dairy Trade Fluctuations

The New Zealand dollar is expected to feel some movement on this week’s dairy auction with dairy being the nation’s largest commodity. February’s latest Global Dairy Trade auction saw the price index decline by -3.2% from the previous event.

There’s also a spattering of domestic data due for release such as Tuesday’s low-tier manufacturing index and Friday’s middle-tier card spending and retail card spending numbers.

Canadian Dollar (CAD) Exchange Rate Awaiting Labour Market Data

Friday will be interesting for the Canadian loonie with the release of Canada’s labour market stats. The Canadian unemployment rate is expected to remain the same at 6.8%, while the net change in employment number is expected to come in at -15.5k.

There’s also some moderately influential ecostats due out throughout the week, such as the Ivey purchasing managers’ index on Tuesday, housing starts and building permits on Wednesday and the Canadian new housing price index on Thursday. Any changes in the price of oil this week is also likely to have a knock-on effect for the Canadian dollar exchange rate.

Japanese Yen Predicted for GDP Movement

Tuesday will be a big day for the safe-haven yen when Japan’s gross domestic product numbers make their way onto the market. Thursday will see the release of cash earnings, office vacancies and machine tool orders numbers which may prove moderately influential for the Japanese yen exchange rate.

Disclaimer: This economic update is provided by FC Exchange a Global Reach Group Company, industry leaders in foreign exchange. Authorised affiliates are permitted to reuse content.

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