Will the Bank of England (BoE) Increase Interest Rates?31 July 2017 by FC Exchange
The currency market could experience some significant movement this week if the Bank of England (BoE) looks as if it's leaning towards increasing interest rates, say currency experts FC Exchange.
BoE Rate Decision Ahead
UK Data last week
Gross domestic product (GDP): 0.3%
Confederation of British Industry (CBI) industrial trends survey: 11
Gfk consumer confidence: 12
It was a quiet week on the data front in the UK with the major data release being UK GDP figures which came out as forecast at 0.3%, causing little movement for the pound. There was also a speech from the Bank of England’s (BoE) chief economist Andy Haldane which was widely anticipated following recent comments made by many of the central bankers surrounding interest rates. Again, there was little movement of note from his speech and as a result sterling had a relatively stable week against a number of major currencies.
Today, UK mortgage approvals data will emerge followed by the inflation report hearing. Tomorrow will see the release of UK Markit manufacturing figures at 09:30 while the construction PMI will be released at 09:30 on Wednesday. The major release for the week will be Thursday’s Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision and minutes followed by the quarterly inflation report, all at 12:00.
Quiet week for Eurozone data
Euro Data Last week
Markit manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI): 53.2
Consumer confidence: -1.7
As with last week, the week ahead is relatively quiet in terms of data releases for the Eurozone. However, Monday will see the release of the currency bloc’s unemployment rate as well as inflation figures. Tomorrow will see the main release for the week due out in the form of GDP numbers at 10:00, while Wednesday will welcome producer price index data followed by retail sales on Thursday.
Non-farm payrolls ahead – USD softer
USD Data last week
Markit manufacturing PMI: 56.8
MBA mortgage applications: 0.4%
Federal Reserve interest rate decision and statement: 1.25%
Initial jobless claims: 244k
Last week was a busy one for US data and developments with the release of the Fed interest rate decision and accompanying statement. As the Fed kept rates on hold, the dollar fell to 10-month lows against the pound (USD/GBP) and two-and-a-half year lows against the euro (USD/EUR) as Janet Yellen and the Fed played down chances of an interest rate hike later this year.
This week is a little quieter although one of the biggest releases of the month is due on Friday in the form of non-farm payrolls. Initial jobless claims will be published at 13:00 on Thursday followed by Markit’s services PMI at 14:45.
Could the RBA raise rates and create an AUD rally?
Those with an interest in the Australian Dollar may have seen some big moves of late with rumours increasing that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may look to raise interest rates later this year. Clues as to whether this will happen could be seen in Friday’s RBA monetary policy statement. This is early Friday morning and could lead to a busy day for the Australian Dollar.
Disclaimer: This economic update is provided by FC Exchange a Global Reach Group Company, industry leaders in foreign exchange. Authorised affiliates are permitted to reuse content.
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